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Spring Forecast for CSBA: RAISES, REMOTE WORK AND ROCKY ROAD AHEAD
By Saul Fishman
President, Civil Service Bar Association (CSBA)
Let’s start with the good news, beyond the warmer temperatures and longer sunlight hours after work:
- Our final raise under the current collective bargaining agreement will be paid to us on Friday May 9th as 3.25% salary, recurring increment payment (“RIP”) and longevity differential increases.
- Remote work is expected to continue at least until the next round of Citywide bargaining late next year, and in all likelihood, well into the foreseeable future.
- Our employer, the City of New York, has very substantial reserves, enabling it to withstand almost any short-term financial crisis.
That said, you don’t need to be an expert in economics, political science or meteorology to forecast very strong headwinds battering New York and other so-called “blue states” later this year and over the next couple of years. CSBA members and indeed the whole world can see that the President of the United States is acting in totally unprecedented fashion, tearing down entire Federal agencies, slashing staffing, funding and protections for workers, consumers, seniors, veterans, hospitals and nursing homes. Monies paid to state and local governments are in many cases either threatened with cutoff or actively being clawed back. Prime example: The $80 million that the prior President reimbursed NYC for temporary migrant housing has been summarily recouped without either warning or a valid rationale.
Unfathomable too, is the change in our nation’s relations with our closest international neighbors and allies. Suddenly even Canada is our adversary? I remember when “Blame Canada!” was an absurd parody of a song by comic actor Robin Williams.
The point is that uncertainty is no friend of the economy and of Wall Street, which affects tax revenues here in New York City, complete with a big ripple effect on our agencies and potentially on collective bargaining.
Yes, NYC has very significant financial reserves. Given these crazy times, how much is enough? Both the NYC and NYS Comptrollers have publicly expressed concerns. The truth is nobody knows for sure how this is all going to shake out for our city, region and nation. Inflation is very likely to increase from steep reciprocal tariffs, which act essentially as a sales tax to the consumer from the goods now made more expensive at our border. And suddenly there is also talk about a possible recession.
All that is certain is that there will be a lot of pain and displacement. Overall good news? Probably not in the near term. Take heart, buckle down, get involved and know that over time, the pendulum swings and some semblance of normalcy and/or progress returns.